Ready to Rumble

It was an interesting--and often amusing--day in Washington yesterday, as rumors and speculation ran wild over who President Bush would nominate to replace the retiring Sandra Day O'Connor. Would Bush outrage the Right by appointing Alberto Gonzalez? Would he outrage the Left by appointing...anyone? Would he name a woman? A man? Some little-known third category? So many possibilities! The media could barely contain themselves, as conservatives gleefully rubbed their hands together in anticipation, and liberals huddled together at secular prayer vigils on the steps of the Supreme Court, singing "We Shall Overcome."

Perhaps I exaggerate. But at any rate, by mid-afternoon, conventional wisdom had decreed: It would be Edith Clement. The chattering classes breathed a collective sigh of relief; another mystery solved. But then more rumors starting flying. Never mind Edith Clement; now the obvious choice would be some white guy named John Roberts.

Who? Hardly anybody knew, but those who did either nodded approvingly (conservatives) or shuddered in fear (liberals). I was among those who were initially bewildered that Bush would choose a CBS reporter for the highest court in the land. Upon further investigation, it was revealed that this John Roberts is a federal appeals judge for the DC Circuit, has clerked for Chief Justice Rehnquist, and has served as an assistant solicitor general in the first Bush administration. But despite an impressive resume, Roberts lacked a clear paper trail of controversial rulings one way or the other, because most of his career has been spent advocating the positions of his clients, not his own personal views.

It is this vagueness that could make Roberts a very shrewd choice--or a very unwise one. If, as most (but not all) conservative bigwigs assure us, Roberts is a strongly rooted conservative, then his decidedly noncontroversial past will prove maddening to Democrats trying to block him. But if he is not really as conservative as some hope and others fear, then, at best, we will have another Anthony Kennedy on the court, or at worst, another David Souter. The consensus seems to be that Roberts is a conservative in the mold of Rehnquist: cerebral, not as fiery as a Scalia or a Thomas, but still solid and reliable. If so, he will be a great justice.

Conservatives are generally pleased with Bush's choice, which means the Left is preparing for war. Or are they? After being caught a little off balance by the unexpected announcement last night, the left-wing interests groups have decided that Roberts is, you guessed it, an extreme kook from the fringe of the ultra-rightwing. The ACLU, NARAL, NOW, People for the American Way, Moveon.org, and Americans United for the Separation of Church and State have all come out against the nomination. I'm not sure yet if they are serious, or if they are just going through the motions at this point (they probably had their "STOP NAMELESS BUSH APPOINTEE NOW!" press releases ready to go, they were just waiting on which name to insert). A few Democratic Senators (Schumer, Durbin, Kerry, and Boxer) have already voiced their "grave concerns" of this "deeply troubling" nominee. Howard Dean's DNC has criticized Roberts as "partisan."

So is the Left ready to rumble, or are they just blowing smoke? It will all depend on whether the liberal special interest groups are merely the Democrats' allies, or their political bosses. The coming weeks should be interesting, but not necessarily as brutal as I first expected. Roberts should be confirmed fairly easily, with probably around 30-35 Democrats voting against him. Even with all the pressure being applied by their rabid leftwing base, I doubt the Democrats will be able to muster the votes necessary to sustain a filibuster. And even if they could, it would only draw the dreaded nuclear option. Roberts' confirmation is all but certain.

On a lighter note, I couldn't help but notice that as President Bush announced his choice last night, he was smirking even more than usual. At the time, I figured that Bush was inwardly chuckling at the Democrats' coming predicament (yes, I was guilty of what the psychologists call "projection"). Later I found out that the more likely cause for Bush's smile was a bit less political in nature: Judge Roberts' young son was breaking it down right in front of the presidential podium. A star is born.