The Fate of Europe May Rest in the Hands of the French

If ever there were a foreboding post title, I daresay that would be it.

On May 29, French voters will go to the polls in a national referendum to decide whether to accept or reject the newly proposed European Union constitution--all 500+ pages of it. Many recent polls have shown the non votes to have a slim lead. This has sent Jacque Chirac's government and many EU officials into full-fledged panic, for if a leading proponent of European unity such as France were to reject the constitution, it would be a devastating setback to the grand European project, and some fear (and others hope) it would call into question the long-term feasibility of a united Europe itself. The stakes are very high.

As the London Times reports, many beleaguered non voters are feeling overwhelmed by the vast array of political and intellectual elites who are using every power available to ensure the constitution's ratification. Supporters of the constitution are appealing to that age-old French standby sentiment, virulent anti-Americanism, by darkly suggesting that a vote against the constitution would be a vote for continued American dominance. Chirac, doing his best Charlemagne imitation, even went so far as to say that the upcoming referendom was an opportunity to enshrine French "values" on one hand and repudiate "Anglo-Saxon" economics on the other.

But there is another age-old French quality besides anti-Americanism at work here: The French, God bless 'em, are the world's foremost practitioners of insufferable contrariness. When the French see nearly every major national and continental official give his unqualified endorsment of the EU constitution, they automatically get suspicious.

And even if the constitution is ratified, it will do nothing to reverse the demographic trends that threaten the long-term political and cultural viability of European unity much more than American indifference ever could. To sustain its lavish social entitlement programs for a rapidly aging population, Europe will be forced to absorb immigrant populations in numbers that no society has ever been able to safely assimilate. Most of these immigrants will come from Muslim North Africa. Don't be surprised if there are many rightwing backlashes against these growing and alienated Muslim communities in the years ahead. Escalating social unrest will make it increasingly difficult for the EU to consolidate; indeed, the EU itself will likely be seen as the cause of the problem, not the solution. If Europe is to unite, it had better do it now, while it is still (relatively) culturally and politically homogenous. Otherwise, it might never get another chance.